Hi Y’all,
We need to scale up testing for Covid-19 and the antibodies it leaves in addition to ramping up contact tracing. This is a challenge because it requires making testing available to anyone and potentially mandatory. We need to test people who show no symptoms as well as those who do. We need to know how many folks have had it with and without knowing it. We need to continue testing everyone regularly. We need to have the results quickly and we need to quickly notify anyone who could potentially have been infected.
Without taking these steps we will have a very difficult time mitigating the impact of this virus on our society. Reopening without these data collection efforts will absolutely lead to more damage than would be necessary and will likely stunt the economic benefits of reopening. If consumers don’t feel safe going to places because outbreaks happen seemingly at random and continue holding back on spending because joblessness persists then recovery will be spiky, slow, and inconsistent.
Freedom from disease is important to ensuring a robust recovery. A false sense of security due to lack of information does not make us more free. It only gives the veneer of freedom because we’re simply not aware of what we’re losing until it’s gone. Our health gives us the ability to work and live. Without our health we won’t be able to take advantage of the freedom we so desperately seek to reclaim.
Some folks, roughly 80% of them, won’t be severely impacted by the initial illness. Unfortunately, those folks will infect other people and take the choice away from them. Some folks may get ill and recover from Covid only to left with lung damage or blood clotting that leads to strokes. Lung damage, amputated limbs, and stroke will all be a major loss in freedom for those who suffer them. If only folks who know all the potential risks and have all the data make their own choices and then suffer these problems, that’s one thing. That is not the likely outcome though. The more likely scenario is unknown risks due to lack of data empowering a faulty choice in some which results in the spread to those who didn’t make the same choice.
If we don’t have robust regular testing we won’t know for weeks how massive the spread is. If we don’t have a clear picture of who has antibodies and who does not, it’s much harder to determine whether those folks are getting reinfected or not. If we don’t have a strong contact tracing network we won’t be able to notify all the impacted individuals. If we continue to politicize this issue and distort the reality with rhetoric we will continue to struggle to manage this pandemic.
Thankfully, there are a lot of steps being taken to get us into this position. Google and Apple today released source code for anonymous and autonomous contact tracing. This is a key component that will do more to help mitigate the spread and protect our civil liberties. They have released some key guidelines to help ensure the data is not misused.
https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing
Bill Gates has released an outline of what is required to build out a more robust scale of testing. We’re a long way from where we need to be, but we can get there. Right now, our testing result time is extremely slow and ineffective. We must do better.
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/TheOptimist
Data modelers are working to automate the modeling and collection of data so we can be better informed.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
As counties and states reopen, please be mindful of your social responsibility. When you go out, please take precautions, don’t become a burden to your family or community by taking unnecessary risks. Wear a face covering, whether or not your politician of choice thinks it’s necessary. Wash your hands as much as you can. Be aware of the risks and how your choices have the potential to impact others. If you don’t take this seriously, you could sacrifice the long term freedom of someone else as well as your own.
Stay Safe and Healthy Out There,
~Zach